The Observer’s headline and first sentence are not an auspicious start.  Despite their claims, independent schools will not secure three times as many A*s as state schools.  The origin of the claim is research published in ISC’s Bulletin back in June in the form of an article, A* at A-level: What should we expect?, based on ISC’s own research. There we looked at what would have happened last summer had the A* already existed (so no firm prediction of what would happen this year).  What we found was that around 16.5% of A-level entries from ISC pupils would have been awarded an A*.  We then calculated – very approximately – that around 5.0% of entries from non-ISC pupils would have been awarded an A*.  What this means is that an entry from an ISC pupil would have been roughly three times as likely to be awarded an A* than an entry from a non-ISC pupil.  But there are far fewer pupils at ISC schools than there are taking A-levels elsewhere, so although ISC pupils would have outperformed other pupils, they would probably have been awarded around 36.5% of all of last year’s notional A*s.  Sadly the Observer appears to have muddled its figures and mistaken being three times as likely to get an A* for getting three times as many A*s.  In fact, ISC pupils would have got around half as many A*s as their state school peers: top grades, and therefore access to top universities, are not a closed shop.

Unfortunately, the problems with the article go rather deeper.  Statistics are slippery things, and cited out of context they can be deceptive rather than revealing.  While the article is correct in stating that 7% of pupils in England & Wales are educated privately, in the context of an article on A-level results it’s a very misleading stat to use.  This oft-cited 7% figure is tricky enough at the best of times as I’ve blogged before, with around 14% of British adults having experienced an independent education at some point in their school career, but in an article on A-level performance to use it is plain daft: it would make much more sense to look at the proportion of A-level candidates who attend independent schools when they take their exams, which is around 14%.  By using the 7% figure, the article makes independent school successes look twice as startling, twice as disproportionate, making it that much more tempting to argue that something needs to be done to level up the playing field.

The article then implies that if independently educated pupils do as well as has been suggested when A*s are awarded this Thursday, this will have alarming consequences for the “social makeup” of universities.  In the context of university admissions the 7% figure is even more misleading.  The fact that more than 7% of university students went to independent schools is due to a range of factors that demonstrate the quality of education available at independent schools.  Pupils from ISC schools are more likely to choose to go to university, more likely to choose to apply to more prestigious universities, more likely to choose combinations of A-level subjects that give access to the most prestigious courses, and more likely to achieve top grades: despite representing about 14% of the candidates, roughly 36% of candidates securing three A grades did so at independent schools.  This explanation of the success of pupils from the independent sector as they enter university and progress through their careers is something that ISC has tackled before, with a consideration, Independent Schools and Social Mobility, in ISC’s Bulletin last autumn.

But perhaps the most frustrating thing about the Observer article, is that it tries to reduce the entire issue to the tired clichés of state vs. independent.  Independent schools are not the only schools where pupils achieve a disproportionately high number of top grades.  While about 50% of entries from the independent sector tend to get A grades, so do about 40% of entries from selective state schools, compared to about 22% of entries from other state schools.  Yet the article doesn’t bemoan the disproportionate success of selective state schools.  Moreover, the success of these top performing state schools is not necessarily a boon in the search for a varied social makeup at universities: they tend to have more socially exclusive intakes than other state schools.  Earlier this year, the Sutton Trust published findings that only 3% of pupils at the top-performing 200 secondary state schools were on free school meal, compared with 14% nationally.  These high-performing socially-exclusive state schools are not just the grammar schools: another report, also from the Sutton Trust, found that the best comprehensive schools are more exclusive than grammars. 

If pupils in the state sector are not all from the same background, so it is with pupils at independent schools.  Around a third of ISC pupils receive some form of help with their fees with schools giving over half a billion pounds in financial assistance each year.  Over 7% of pupils at ISC schools receive means-tested bursaries.  Given the Observer article’s concerns about the social makeup of universities, it is therefore a shame that they have used attendance at an independent school as a simple proxy for a privileged background.  There is always a risk that if school sector is used as an indicator of social background the impression of social mobility can be created by the substitution of one set of middle class pupils from independent schools with another from grammar schools in affluent areas.  What all of this should demonstrate is that talking in the blanket terms of school background is unhelpful if the underlying concern is social mobility. 

There is a real problem with children from deprived backgrounds failing to get through the education system to university in large enough numbers, but the solution will never come from lamenting the success of pupils from independent schools.  In the last year for which there are figures, just 45 pupils from England and Wales who received free school meals were accepted by Oxbridge.  This is less than 1% of Oxbridge entrants, despite over 14% of children being on free school means nationally.  The real concern about the “social makeup” of universities should not be the high representation of former independent school pupils, rather, it should be the low representation of pupils from the most deprived backgrounds.  Therefore, those pupils who achieve outstanding results when their A-level results are released on Thursday should be applauded, whatever type of school they attended, and anyone concerned with iniquity within the system should look not at those who do achieve, but at those who fail to and consider the reasons why.

Related posts:

1. Vince Cable and university admissions
2. Crucial nuances to the university admissions debate
3. Students may fund school provision in university access u-turn

Between the end of exams and results there is nothing that can usefully be done: worrying about results does NOT count as useful. The key is to enjoy the break, and to be well informed about the options that are available once results come out.

Option 1: results tally with the university offer. In this case, there is nothing to do. The offer will be automatically confirmed by UCAS, and the assumption is that it will be accepted (unless your child contacts UCAS to inform them otherwise).

Option 2: results narrowly miss the university offer. Tracking progress on the UCAS website will tell you if a decision has been made (and this often comes through on results day). If there is no status change this means the university is still considering their decision, and it is well worth your son or daughter (and it needs to be them, not a parent, or the school) making direct contact with them to reaffirm interest in the place. Usually, a final decision will be made within 1-2 days of results coming out. It is fair to say that an offer just missed for a popular course (Law, Medicine) at a popular university is less likely to be confirmed than a less ‘popular’ choice.

Option 3: results achieved and offer made are radically different from each other. If your child has missed their place, it is important that the first course which has space is not grabbed in an attempt to be somewhere, rather than nowhere. Look at which courses have places (clearing information is published on the UCAS website and in the Independent newspaper: use the ‘phone numbers provided), and consider these two questions: is this somewhere your son or daughter would wish to study; and if so, does this course suit their interests? If the answer to both of these is yes, AND if the requirements for the course are met by their exam results, a ‘phone call may elicit a verbal offer straightaway. It is possible to hold simultaneous offers and decide over a few days which will best suit.

What happens if there is no such course? It is better for your child to re-apply than to go to a place or study a subject which does not suit them. An impromptu GAP year is really not the worst thing that can happen to them (most GAP organisations still have schemes available, even at the 11th hour) in the medium term.

Option 4: results exceed expectation, and offers. In this case, it is possible to register for ‘Adjustment’, which will enable your son or daughter to reconsider where and what to study.

A short note about the International Baccalaureate: results come out in early July, and if offers are met, places will be confirmed by UCAS straightaway. If not, it is likely that no decision will be taken until the publication of the A Level results. If an offer has been missed by a whisker, it may be worth e-mailing the university to re-state interest in and enthusiasm for the course.

If your child is worried that they may not make their grades, be sure to seek the advice and help of the school, and to be around on results day (independent schools will be open, with key staff available, often including the Head). If action is appropriate, it will need to be swift, and this is far harder to manage from a beach in the Maldives.

Judith Fenn
Head of Schools’ Services
ISC

Related posts:

1. School league tables, websites and independent schools guides: How do I decide which school is best for my child?
2. A Bright Spark: ‘Gifted and Talented’ in the Independent Sector
3. An Independent Education: Promoting Flexibility and Choice